Our investment team shares our outlook for 2023 and explains how we are positioning portfolios. We expect volatility to continue over the coming months, but we are starting to see opportunities across asset classes.
"Central bankers may start to sound less anxious about inflation in 2023. But investors must still contend with higher interest rates and a deteriorating economic backdrop as the US and other developed markets fall into recession."
Global economy: Our base case is for developed markets to fall into recession in 2023 before rebounding in 2024.
Inflation: Inflationary pressures could remain elevated in the UK, though we may see US inflation fall faster given greater self-sufficiency in both energy and agriculture.
Interest rates: In the near term, we expect interest rates to move slightly higher in both the US and UK. However, rate cuts could be on the cards in late 2023 as central banks shift their focus to supporting economic growth.
Corporate earnings: Analyst expectations remain too optimistic. Earnings and margins could come under pressure as the global economy slows.
Energy prices: Risks skewed to upside given potential for further supply disruptions.
Equity: Remain underweight given elevated near-term uncertainty, with a preference for large-cap, higher-quality companies. Looking for opportunities to increase exposure.
Fixed income: Neutral fixed income but see increasing opportunity in both corporate and government bonds. A preference for short-dated bonds in the near term, with an eye on extending maturity to increase defensiveness.
Alternatives: We remain positive on alternatives as diversifying assets and see good longer-term opportunities in areas including real assets and commodities.
Cash: Maintaining an elevated cash position in the near term to take advantage of tactical opportunities.
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