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Caspar Rock: Monday markets - the week ahead on 25 November

Thanksgiving on Thursday and Black Friday truncate the coming week and could add to volatility. We have US consumer confidence data to watch out for – and a speech from the Fed's Jerome Powell.



Caspar Rock
Chief Investment Officer
  • With Thanksgiving in the US on Thursday and the crazed shopping frenzy “Black Friday” the day after, we might see lower volumes and slightly increased volatility.
  • This week's data releases include the euro area CPI estimate on Friday. On Wednesday, we get a reading on US consumer confidence alongside the second estimate of US third-quarter GDP.  The GDP number is expected to confirm the preliminary forecast of 1.9%. We also have a speech from Fed Chair Powell tonight.
  • Last week the eurozone flash composite PMI signalled continued weak expansion in the region.
  • We also saw the minutes from the last Fed meeting which noted that the risks to the economic and inflation outlook remain tilted to the downside.
  • While risks surrounding trade negotiations and geopolitical issues such as Brexit have eased, policymakers still see them as elevated.
  • In the UK, the Conservative Party consolidated and increased its lead in polls.
  • Equities were slightly lower last week, and bonds rallied a little along with the dollar, all of which pointed to a week that consolidated the recent rally in risk markets.

This article is issued by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroders Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. 

Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.

This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.


Caspar Rock
Chief Investment Officer


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