Snapshot - Strategy & economics
Caspar Rock: Monday markets - the week ahead on 28 October
The UK Parliament votes today on an election. Later in the week, investors will be scrutinising US and eurozone economic data and looking for clues on US monetary policy.
The EU has agreed to a three month Brexit extension. The UK Parliament will now vote on whether to hold a general election in December.
Equities rallied last week thanks in part to better than expected earnings reports. Companies have generally been echoing what we have seen in macroeconomic data, with weaker performance in manufacturing and stronger performance in services. Economic data releases also indicated a slight pick-up in US activity.
Another US interest rate cut is widely expected at this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Markets will be more focused on clues about the outlook for US monetary policy in 2020.
Estimates of third-quarter GDP will also be released this week. In the US, we expect to see slower growth than in recent quarters. In the Eurozone, we expect to continued weak growth and low inflation.
Argentina’s election over the weekend resulted in a victory for left-wing leader Alberto Fernandez over the centre-right coalition headed by Mauricio Macri. The central bank promptly imposed tighter FX controls.
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