Current views - December 2017
Our Investment team provide their current views on asset classes based on the status of markets.
There are concerns over continued economic strength in light of uncertainty around Brexit and the tailwind from weaker sterling may be in the past.
There is continued strength in the EU economy. Equity markets are relatively attractive, although given their performance already this year we have tempered our enthusasim in the short term.
A stronger economy, a weaker US dollar and good earnings growth is offset by a fuller valuation.
Strong global trade and household consumption support growth, while inflation is also gently picking up.
The weak dollar and pick-up in global trade is helpful to Asia Pacific.
Similar to Asia Pacific, stronger earnings and less dollar pressure is positive for the region.
We remain negative on sterling and euro bonds. US treasuries are becoming more attractive given the normalisation of yields that has already taken place.
Credit spreads have provided some pick-up but we prefer short-dated bonds.
Credit spreads are at a historically tight level so we are wary of high-yield spread duration exposure.
Inflation-linked government bonds remain more attractive than conventional government bonds and give protection against any inflation surprise.
Selectively, local emerging market bonds offer good interest rate and currency exposure.
Increased volatility and dispersion should provide opportunities.
Absolute: fixed income
Lower liquidity and flatter rate profiles reduce the attractiveness of many strategies.
Increased volatility across many asset classes should counter flatter rate cycles.
Commercial property (UK)
Post-Brexit concerns have resulted in the marking down of property valuations, but income characteristics remain attractive.
Gold is attractive as a diversifier, portfolio insurance and as an inflation hedge.
Ongoing excess supply is likely to weigh on prices for some time.
Oil continues to be volatile as politics and supply concerns dominate the market.
Cash has defensive and opportunistic qualities in uncertain and volatile markets.
Issued in the Channel Islands by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroders Group and is a trading name of Schroders (C.I.) Limited, licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission for banking and investment business; and regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.