Janet Mui: 2019 first quarter update

A modest slowdown and a sudden shift in central bank guidance - but other factors are keeping investors awake at night.

31 Mar 2019

Janet Mui

Janet Mui

Global Economist

Slowdown but no recession

Though growth is slowing, we do not expect a recession this year. Accommodative monetary policy, easing trade tensions and low inflation all provide grounds for cautious optimism.

Easier monetary policy from the Fed and ECB

The first quarter saw significant shifts in guidance from the Fed and the ECB. We may well have seen the end of the current interest rate hiking cycle.

Investors remain cautious

China remains investors’ biggest long-term concern. Slowing Eurozone growth is another key worry. 


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