Video: Why do markets rise when economies slump?
In this short video we explain how the US stock market has managed to recoup its Covid-19 losses for the year, despite the US economy falling into recession.
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In the midst of this pandemic, markets and the economy have moved in the opposite direction to each other. So what on earth is going on?
Forward looking
Markets are forward-looking. A share price captures all future earnings of a company. Any news that impacts those earnings expectations can move markets before it actually shows up in financial statements. This is exactly what has happened.
Most of the bad news was already priced in when markets crashed in the first quarter of 2020, as investors anticipated the economic slump ahead of the release of any official economic data.
For the same reason, share prices also capture the subsequent recovery, which is why we have seen markets rebound recently.
Huge stimulus packages
The catalyst for the rebound was the huge stimulus package that central banks and governments unleashed. This has eased fears of a credit crisis and supported asset prices.
It is also worth highlighting that the stock market is a poor representation of the economy. For example, the largest US technology companies contribute 20% to the total US stock market value, even though their revenues are only 4% of US GDP. This has also widened the disconnect between markets and the economy.
Looking ahead, investors shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a further market correction if the economy remains shut for longer than expected, or worse if a second wave of infections occurs.
This article is issued by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroders Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.
All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.
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