What could be behind the collapse in the Conservative party’s lead? There are several potential factors to consider. First, the government’s response to the Covid-19 health emergency has come under significant criticism. From appearing to seek herd immunity, to then locking down the country for a far longer period than the rest of Europe. Confusion over whether people should go to work or not, along with whether masks should be mandatory to wear. The fiasco over the grading of students finishing high school and sixth form college (without exams) would have severely damaged its reputation, while more recently, problems accessing Covid-19 tests, and the failure to introduce a “world beating” track and trace system have not helped either.

The second factor is the changing dynamics of the two parties. After calling an election to secure a strong enough mandate to force through Brexit, the Conservative party won a huge majority in December 2019, leaving the Labour party to comes to terms with its worst result since the Second World War.

Under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, the party had shifted its policies to the extreme left, including mass nationalisation of utilities, transport and some industries, along with the use of quantitative easing to pay for public services. These policies sound less extreme in today’s Covid-19 climate, but at the time, comparisons were being made with the Labour party of the late 1970s and even with Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, who Corbyn reportedly admires. The party’s stance and leadership had arguably made it “unelectable”.

The defeat prompted Corbyn’s resignation, making way for Sir Kier Starmer who was elected as the new Labour party leader in April (coinciding with the tightening in polls). The more moderate Starmer hopes to show that Labour now occupies the centre ground of UK politics, as the Conservative party has slowly drifted to the right.

Under pressure from the Eurosceptic UK Independence Party, the Conservatives have gone from being a pro-EU party, to being run by hard-line Brexiteers. The large majority achieved at the last election has meant that Johnson has been able to squash pro-EU rebels, and install like-minded and loyal Brexiteers in key cabinet positions. The recent threat to “over-ride” the EU Withdrawal Agreement highlights the degree of power the government has, with little opposition remaining.

Finally, the poor progress made in EU trade negotiations could also be a factor. Openly threatening to unwind parts of the EU Withdrawal Agreement has been condemned by all sides of the House of Commons, and a number of senior political and civil service figures have resigned in protest. Such contempt for international law may also have shifted voter preference.

Although the swing in opinion polls will not please the government, the reality is that Johnson does not need to worry about another election until late 2023/early 2024. Especially given the large majority he commands in parliament.

Conclusions: populism is not dead yet

It may be too soon to declare the death of populism in Europe, but the Covid-19 pandemic appears to have focused minds and re-aligned the priorities of households, leading to a fall in support for populist parties and a return to more familiar centrists.

In countries like Germany and France, it allows their governments to focus on enacting the best possible measures to help support their population survive the crisis. However, just being the government of the day is not enough to win public support. Competence in managing the current situation is also a requirement, as seen in the UK.

Finally, it is worth remembering why these populist parties have done so well in recent years. Poor economic growth, rising inequality and a sense of a lack of representation, especially at the EU level, are all ongoing issues that are likely to be exacerbated by the crisis. If liberal centrist policy makers do not take advantage of the bounce they are enjoying, then populists are likely to return in greater force.

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