Our latest analysis of progress toward long-term climate goals shows a marginal move in the right direction, boosted by rising carbon prices. Much more change is needed to come close to the commitments global leaders made in Paris two years ago.

We introduced the Climate Progress Dashboard to track the pace and scale of change across a spectrum of levers, all of which need to move to limit long-term temperature rises. Climate change poses two questions for investors:

How much change is likely in policies, clean technology use, energy production etc.?
How would those changes affect the profitability and value of companies and portfolios?

The Climate Progress Dashboard is designed to help address the first of those questions, bringing together the disparate signals and data points that can confuse more than they resolve, on a consistent basis. Please see here for further details as well as an overview of our other climate change tools and analysis

Our latest quarterly update shows a marginal headline improvement. The average temperature rise implied by the range of indicators we examine has dropped from 4.1 to 4.0°C. Practically, the difference is a rounding error in the scheme of change needed, but it is at least rounding down rather than drifting further away from the 2°C safety line.

Two elements of the dashboard show meaningful change in Q1. On the one hand, public concern over climate change has softened, particularly in the US. On the other, carbon prices in Europe have risen sharply in recent months, albeit still a long way from levels high enough to incentivise change on the scale needed.

Public concern drops back in the US

Our analysis looks at national surveys tracking public concern in the largest emitting economies. At the end of March, Gallup released an update to its survey of attitudes in the US, showing a small drop in concern. 63% of American adults expressed “a fair amount” or “a great deal” of worry about climate change, down from 66% last year and reversing toughening attitudes in all of the previous three years.

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