IN FOCUS6-8 min read

Wealth management outlook for 2023

Our investment team shares our outlook for 2023 and explains how we are positioning portfolios. We expect volatility to continue over the coming months, but we are starting to see opportunities across asset classes.

15/12/2022

Authors

Christopher Lewis
Head of Investment Strategy, Wealth Management

"Central bankers may start to sound less anxious about inflation in 2023. But investors must still contend with higher interest rates and a deteriorating economic backdrop as the US and other developed markets fall into recession."

Click here to download our Outlook for 2023 (PDF)

Economic outlook

Global economy: Our base case is for developed markets to fall into recession in 2023 before rebounding in 2024.

Inflation: Inflationary pressures could remain elevated in the UK, though we may see US inflation fall faster given greater self-sufficiency in both energy and agriculture.

Interest rates: In the near term, we expect interest rates to move slightly higher in both the US and UK. However, rate cuts could be on the cards in late 2023 as central banks shift their focus to supporting economic growth.

Corporate earnings: Analyst expectations remain too optimistic. Earnings and margins could come under pressure as the global economy slows.

Energy prices: Risks skewed to upside given potential for further supply disruptions.

 

Investment strategy

Equity: Remain underweight given elevated near-term uncertainty, with a preference for large-cap, higher-quality companies. Looking for opportunities to increase exposure.

Fixed income: Neutral fixed income but see increasing opportunity in both corporate and government bonds. A preference for short-dated bonds in the near term, with an eye on extending maturity to increase defensiveness.

Alternatives: We remain positive on alternatives as diversifying assets and see good longer-term opportunities in areas including real assets and commodities.

Cash: Maintaining an elevated cash position in the near term to take advantage of tactical opportunities.

Issued in the Channel Islands by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroders Group and is a trading name of Schroders (C.I.) Limited, licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission for banking and investment business; and regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.

 

Authors

Christopher Lewis
Head of Investment Strategy, Wealth Management

Topics

In Focus
Income
Economics
Inflation
Economic views
Global economy
Market views
Alternatives
Equities
Outlook 2023

Cazenove Capital is a trading name of Schroders (C.I.) Ltd which is licensed under the Banking Supervision (Bailiwick of Guernsey) Law 2020 and the Protection of Investors (Bailiwick of Guernsey) Law 2020, as amended in the conduct of banking and investment business. Registered address at Regency Court, Glategny Esplanade, St. Peter Port, Guernsey GY1 3UF, (No.24546) . Schroders (C.I.) Limited, Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission in the conduct of investment business. Registered address at 40 Esplanade, St. Helier, Jersey JE2 3QB, (No.31076).

The value of your investments and the income received from them can fall as well as rise. You may not get back the amount you invested.