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Snapshot - Strategy & economics

Janet Mui: 2019 third quarter update

In two years the global economy has gone from synchronised growth to synchronised slowdown. Our stance has become more cautious, but we do not expect a recession

18/10/2019

Janet Mui

Janet Mui

Global Economist

  • Two years ago the majority of the world economy was growing. Today the reverse is true as economies come together in a synchronised slowdown.
  • Weakness is focused on manufacturing, and triggered by the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China.
  • Despite the slowdown we do not expect a recession. This is because the spillover from manufacturing weakness into the services sector is so far relatively contained. In the US, the services sector is a far greater part of the overall economy than manufacturing.
  • US consumers are in a comparatively robust position: they are helped by lower levels of household debt and lower interest costs.
  • Central banks including the Federal Reserve have been cutting rates to support the global economy, but their ammunition is limited.
  • The key topic in financial markets is whether governments will ride to the rescue with supportive fiscal policies. Again, in many developed markets, governments' headroom for fiscal action is limited.

This article is issued by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroders Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. 

Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.

This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.

All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.

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