Strategy & economics
Caspar Rock: Monday markets - the week ahead on 25 November
- With Thanksgiving in the US on Thursday and the crazed shopping frenzy “Black Friday” the day after, we might see lower volumes and slightly increased volatility.
- This week's data releases include the euro area CPI estimate on Friday. On Wednesday, we get a reading on US consumer confidence alongside the second estimate of US third-quarter GDP. The GDP number is expected to confirm the preliminary forecast of 1.9%. We also have a speech from Fed Chair Powell tonight.
- Last week the eurozone flash composite PMI signalled continued weak expansion in the region.
- We also saw the minutes from the last Fed meeting which noted that the risks to the economic and inflation outlook remain tilted to the downside.
- While risks surrounding trade negotiations and geopolitical issues such as Brexit have eased, policymakers still see them as elevated.
- In the UK, the Conservative Party consolidated and increased its lead in polls.
- Equities were slightly lower last week, and bonds rallied a little along with the dollar, all of which pointed to a week that consolidated the recent rally in risk markets.
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