Snapshot

Janet Mui: weekly economic update 6 March


  • Investors are increasingly fearful that the coronavirus will significantly depress global economic growth. 
  • We have seen a co-ordinated central bank response to the crisis. The Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have all cut rates. The BoE, ECB and BoJ have all signalled they are ready to provide support, though they have less room to cut rates.  
  • The Fed's 50bp cut takes the US policy rate to a range of 1.0 - 1.25%. This was the Fed's first "emergency" rate cut since the financial crisis. Markets expect further easing. 
  • Governments are also considering fiscal stimulus measures. Italy, for instance, is weighing up a 6 billion euro support package for its economy. 
  • Markets remain cautious. It is still far from certain that the virus can be contained. Investors also have concerns about the effectiveness of a monetary response to a public health crisis.
  • We remain cautiously optimistic. Prior to the crisis, global economic momentum was improving. We think the coronavirus will delay, rather than derail, this recovery.
  • Global economic growth will be lower in the first half of the year. However, we expect activity to pick up in the second half, supported by a robust response from central banks and increased government spending .

This article is issued by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroder Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.

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