Strategy & economics

Janet Mui: weekly economic update 12 April

Brexit' delay protracts uncertainty for the UK. In Europe and the US, interest rate policy remains

11/04/2019

Janet Mui

Janet Mui

Global Economist

Brexit limbo

Following talks between the EU officials and Theresa May on 10 April Brexit has been granted a "flexible extension" up until 31 October. While the delay removes the immediate danger of a cliff edge Brexit, it adds more frustration by prolonging uncertainty which is detrimental to business confidence and investment. That said, the UK economy should remain relatively resilient thanks to a tight labour market.

European Central Bank meeting

The European Central Bank retained its forward guidance that the key policy rates will stay unchanged through year-end. Overall, we think the ECB will remain accommodative but a rate cut is not on the table unless economic data gets much worse.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve

The minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting suggests the Fed will hold back from interest rate changes. We think that the bar for any rate increase is high and expect rates to remain on hold for the rest of the year - unless growth and inflation rise strongly.

This article is issued by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroder Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.

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