Strategy & economics

Janet Mui: 2019 first quarter update

A modest slowdown and a sudden shift in central bank guidance - but other factors are keeping investors awake at night.


Janet Mui

Janet Mui

Global Economist

Slowdown but no recession

Though growth is slowing, we do not expect a recession this year. Accommodative monetary policy, easing trade tensions and low inflation all provide grounds for cautious optimism.

Easier monetary policy from the Fed and ECB

The first quarter saw significant shifts in guidance from the Fed and the ECB. We may well have seen the end of the current interest rate hiking cycle.

Investors remain cautious

China remains investors’ biggest long-term concern. Slowing Eurozone growth is another key worry. 

This article is issued by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroder Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.

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