Perspective

Investors ask: what will happen to the price of gold?


We're holding regular webinars where clients and others can listen in to expert investor presentations – and put their own questions. To be included in future invitations, click "Subscribe to updates" above, right. Where we can't answer questions fully on the day, we'll deal with them at greater length here.


Investors ask: What's your view on what will happen to the price of gold over the next 12 months?

For the first time in close to a decade – and for only the second time since the early 1980s – gold has registered six consecutive quarters of positive returns. Gold returned 11.2% (in dollar terms, to end of April) and has made new highs in every currency except for the US dollar.

Despite these strong returns, there remain a number of structural and technical supports for the gold price which we believe suggest further potential gains in the second half of the year.

"Safe haven" characteristics to the fore as COVID anxiety persists

Gold has, on average, delivered positive returns during previous equity market drawdowns. It is regarded by investors as a "safe-haven" asset in times of uncertainty, with a physical value and no counterparty or default risk.

gold_vs_spx_chart.png

Equity markets have recovered from their March lows. However, in the absence of a vaccine, there remains the risk of a second wave of infections, leading to additional economic disruption and further stock market falls. In this environment, we think demand for gold will remain high.

Long-term inflation fears add to gold's appeal

In the past, gold has proven to be a good inflation hedge, with the price rising significantly when the rate of inflation has increased by 2% or more.

In the near term, we do not see significant inflationary pressure. However, given the scale of monetary and fiscal stimulus and disruption of supply chains, an inflation overshoot remains a notable risk. The gold price should perform relatively well in this environment.

Demand is strong

It is unsurprising that in the short term we have seen significant demand for gold. According to the World Gold Council, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added 298 tonnes, or net inflows of $23 billion in the first quarter of 2020. This was the highest quarterly amount ever in US dollar terms – and the largest tonnage addition since 2016.

Investors ask: do you favour physical gold over shares in gold miners, or is there a case for owning both?

The outlook for gold equities is arguably stronger today than at any point in the last 20 years. Gold producers are generating margins roughly 200% higher than at the peak of the last bull market in 2011, but valuations are reflecting gold prices that are significantly below current prices.

The macro environment that is driving current gold price strength is particularly favourable to gold producer profitability. Revenue is going up, while costs are firmly anchored.

We are however mindful that gold equities have tended to exhibit higher correlation to broader equity markets and therefore do not offer quite the same defensive benefits during equity market corrections. In the construct of a multi-asset portfolio, our preference remains to hold physical gold within our alternatives allocation.

The opinions contained herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the house view. This document is intended to be for information purposes only. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Cazenove Capital does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Cazenove Capital has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Cazenove Capital is part of the Schroder Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Registered Office at 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. For your security, communications may be taped and monitored. 

Contact Cazenove Charities

Achieving your charity's investment objectives takes time and thought. To find out how we can help you please contact:

James Brennan

James Brennan

Portfolio Director james.brennan@cazenovecapital.com