Market update – February 2020
Stock markets resilient despite eventful start to 2020
When asked what he most feared, Harold McMillan famously replied “events, dear boy, events.” January has seen a confluence of events: sabre-rattling in the Middle East; further wildfires in Australia and the outbreak of an epidemic in China. The latter in particular has caused anxiety in equity markets. Investors are assuming that the economic impact of the coronavirus will be short-lived, with growth quickly rebounding once it is contained – an assumption that is supported by the history of the SARS epidemic in 2003. The coronavirus, and concern about its impact on global growth, has led to fresh demand for the safety of government bonds, with yields grinding ever lower.
Central banks remain on standby
Despite hints that it was leaning towards a rate cut, a clear majority of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to leave UK interest rates on hold at 0.75%. In its statement, the BoE dropped its guidance towards gradual tightening of monetary policy and reiterated that it remains ready to act if UK growth fails to pick up. The Federal Reserve also remains supportive. At its latest meeting, the US central bank again observed that core inflation is still well below its 2% target. Markets have responded by pricing in a higher probability of additional US interest rate cuts over the next 12 months.
UK political developments return to the fore
The UK has now formally left the EU and entered into a transition period. Political developments will remain crucial for UK markets over the coming months. Negotiations will soon begin with the EU over trade and other matters. Next month will see the first budget from Boris Johnson’s new government. The Conservative party has given clear indications that it is no longer the party of austerity and does not plan to run a balanced budget. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on the UK’s growth and debt profile – and how markets will respond.
We maintain a neutral allocation to equities across portfolios. While the coronavirus could have a real impact on Chinese growth in the short term, the authorities are taking the threat seriously and have responded decisively. Although market weakness may provide interesting buying opportunities, we need to see evidence of a peak in new coronavirus cases and more conclusive information on the mortality rate before adding significantly. Assuming the virus is contained relatively soon, we expect growth to rebound, supported by a healthier outlook for global trade following the deal concluded between the US and China. We remain underweight bonds, though some areas of the market – such as emerging markets – look relatively more appealing. We continue to favour diversifiers, including gold which has continued to perform strongly in 2020.
The opinions contained herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the house view. This document is intended to be for information purposes only. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Cazenove Capital does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Cazenove Capital has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Cazenove Capital is part of the Schroder Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Registered Office at 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. For your security, communications may be taped and monitored.