60 seconds on the market implications of Trump's victory
Trump’s victory will probably put pressure on equity market valuations as investors price in a higher level of political risk.
There is also a concern about the impact on emerging markets, as Trump has been vociferous about imposing tariffs, for example on Mexico and China. We will have to see in the next few months whether Trump’s bark is worse than his bite when it comes to trade.
In the meantime, there could be some buying opportunities as we head into year-end. The Treasury market so far has been stable. We have to monitor that very closely because some of his policies may be somewhat inflationary. For now, we would definitely avoid Treasuries.
The US dollar has weakened and that is good news because it alleviates pressure on the US economy. Ironically it also helps the emerging markets where, in many cases, their currencies are pegged to the US dollar.
Overall, there are a lot of implications to process over the medium-term but in the short-term we think the US dollar could act as a shock absorber as investors price in higher political risk.
The opinions contained herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the house view. This document is intended to be for information purposes only. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Cazenove Capital does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Cazenove Capital has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Cazenove Capital is part of the Schroder Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. Registered Office at 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. For your security, communications may be taped and monitored.