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Ahmet Feridun: Monday markets - the week ahead 4 November 19

Markets are buoyed by broadly positive data and the Federal Reserve's rate cut. In Europe, Germany may have slipped into a technical recession. Uber and Disney to report this week, among others.



Ahmet Feridun
Deputy Chief Investment Officer
  • Last week was a good one for equities with data on balance more positive, trade talks seemingly going in the right direction, an election finally called in the UK and a Federal Reserve rate cut.
  • The S&P 500 advanced 1.5% with semiconductors leading gains, whilst the Nasdaq gained 1.7% to a new record.
  • The Fed cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point but chair Jerome Powell indicated that the bar to further action had been raised.
  • October’s US employment data suggests the job market remains strong. Inflation data was weaker than expected.
  • In Europe, preliminary data showed overall growth during the third quarter, but Germany’s GDP growth was flat. There is a possibility that subsequent estimates of GDP will show Germany has slipped into a technical recession.
  • UK news is dominated by pre-election campaigning. There was evidence of inventory build-up ahead of the 31 October Brexit deadline, which may impact on future GDP numbers.

Week ahead

  • The US corporate earnings season continues with companies such as Uber, Disney and Qualcomm reporting their third quarter numbers.
  • To date 359 of the S&P 500 index companies have reported, with over 60% of those reporting beating consensus revenue estimates and 80% beating consensus earnings.

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Ahmet Feridun
Deputy Chief Investment Officer


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