2019 may well bring trends that surprise us on the upside

While global growth is slowing, the pessimism that gripped markets in 2018 may lift during the course of this year

25/01/2019

Authors

Janet Mui
Global Economist, Cazenove Capital

Looking ahead to 2019 the base case is that while the global economy will slow, a recession will be avoided. Many factors – including a strong labour market in the US, and fiscal boosts in China and elsewhere – will underpin earnings.

After the extreme negativity of markets in late 2018, we may see a recovery in share prices as several of investors’ worst fears fail to materialise.

At current levels we think markets are pricing in a recession scenario – which we see as extremely pessimistic and unfounded.

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Authors

Janet Mui
Global Economist, Cazenove Capital

Topics

Quarterly Report
Economic & Strategy Viewpoint
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Market views

Cazenove Capital is a trading name of Schroders (C.I.) Ltd which is licensed under the Banking Supervision (Bailiwick of Guernsey) Law 2020 and the Protection of Investors (Bailiwick of Guernsey) Law 2020, as amended in the conduct of banking and investment business. Registered address at Regency Court, Glategny Esplanade, St. Peter Port, Guernsey GY1 3UF, (No.24546) . Schroders (C.I.) Limited, Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission in the conduct of investment business. Registered address at 40 Esplanade, St. Helier, Jersey JE2 3QB, (No.31076).

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