Kent House Series: Bill Browder's personal battle with Putin
Financier, human rights activist and author Bill Browder, gave his views on current affairs in Russia, the US, and more at a literary event sponsored by Cazenove Capital. He was interviewed by journalist Andrew Billen, followed by audience questions and a live book signing.
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“How come you’re still alive?” the interviewer asked Sir Bill Browder, famed for publicly criticising Putin, at the Kent House Series literary event.
The financier-turned-activist has had multiple attempts made on his life, death threats, lawsuits and an Interpol arrest. “I’ve got to be lucky every day,” said Bill, “they only need to be lucky once.”
Addressing a small audience in Kensington, London, on 18 March, Bill explained how he originally set up Hermitage Capital in Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall. He was extremely successful, partly because no other Western investors were in Russia at this time. However, his life changed when his tax lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, was arrested and killed in prison.
In his best-selling books, Red Notice, and Freezing Order, Bill describes how Sergei was working for Hermitage Capital when he attempted to alert the Russian state that there was theft and corruption by Russian officials. He makes the terrifying claim that Sergei was arrested and beaten to death in jail in 2009. “I carry it with me to this day. It is my guilt that drives me,” said Bill, who then ceased all his financial activities and started his career as a human rights activist.
Bill spoke at the Kent House Series the same evening that Trump had had a two-hour phone call with Putin, in which Trump suggested a ceasefire. While nothing has been agreed yet, Bill believes that Putin may be more open to negotiation “because the war is hurting the Russians.”
“I’ve got to be lucky every day. They only need to be lucky once.”
What motivates Putin?
“What do you think Putin actually wants?” one audience member asked. Bill argued that Putin’s sole aim is to stay in power. In his book, Red Notice, Bill writes: “Putin’s fear of losing power is not about losing control of the country—he can steal and manipulate elections as much as he wants—but about losing the immunity from prosecution that comes with being president of Russia. If he were no longer president, he would be vulnerable to prosecution for his crimes, as would many of his allies.”
Another audience member asked what Putin’s death might mean for Russia. Bill argued that this depends on how he dies. “If he died in his sleep, they would find someone to carry on the status quo,” he predicted. “I would estimate there is a 90% chance of it happening this way.” At age 72, this isn’t likely to happen for another decade or so, Bill said.
However, he predicted that there is a “10-15% chance” that Putin will go too far and the Russian people turn on him. “He has killed and maimed 900,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine,” said Bill. “But these things happen in totally unexpected ways. You can’t predict it. It’s likely then that all the oligarchs would fly off on their jets, and then maybe you could have a better Russian leader.”
When asked what role the Chinese had in this, Bill said: “They love to watch us depleting our resources by fighting with each other. They loved the Iraq war and brought up lots of Africa while that was going on. They love the cheap oil they are getting from Russia and they can sell Chinese cars and phones to Russia now.”
Bill Browder's latest book, Freezing Order: A True Story of Russian Money Laundering, Murder,and Surviving Vladimir Putin's Wrath, 2022
Trump’s view of Putin
When asked why Trump is taking an unusually cordial approach towards Putin, Bill responded that we just don’t know. “If you were to survey Americans, over 80% dislike Putin. The vast majority of Republicans don’t like Putin. We don’t know why Trump is doing this,” he replied. Bill referenced the Robert Mueller investigation into Trump and Russia. The Mueller Report extensively documented the collusion between Trump and Putin in the 2016 US election, for which people were tried and went to jail. However, the courts decided there wasn’t enough information to prosecute Trump himself.
“It could be about money, or politics,” said Bill. “Most people are rational. When their behaviour doesn’t seem to make sense, you have to assume you don’t have all of the information. The same goes for Trump. I don’t think we have that information, but we don’t need it. All you need to look at is Trump’s actions.”
Will the rule of law hold out?
Some of Trump’s actions appear to be closer to the “strong man” political leadership that Putin exhibits. What we are currently seeing play out across the US is a testing of the rule of law, argued Bill. Trump deported what he claimed was a Venezuelan gang and set them to jail in El Salvador without trial. A US judge has invalidated their deportation. “Will the rule of law hold up? We don’t know,” said Bill. “It could go one way or the other.”
One audience member commented that surely the average American would not carry out more extreme orders, such as invading Greenland. “You’re sort of right, sort of not,” responded Bill. “98% of people are just regular people doing their jobs. But the people at the top are not the same as those at the top during Trump’s first term.” He pointed to political outsiders, such as Elon Musk, who seem less bothered about following the status quo. “People from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are rounding up immigrants on the streets and arresting them. It’s not invading Greenland, but it’s pretty un-American. We will see if people stand up to this or not. Will we have a fair and free election in 2028?” Bill added.
Read more of Bill Browder’s story, in his books, Red Notice and Freezing Order. If you wish to attend one of the Kent House Series events, please speak to your usual Cazenove Capital contact.
The Magnitsky Act |
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Browder's campaign for justice in the wake of Magnitsky's death led to the drafting of the Magnitsky Act. Initially introduced in the US in 2012, the act imposed visa bans and asset freezes on Russian officials responsible for human rights abuses, including those connected to Magnitsky's death. The law gained international attention and led to similar legislation in other countries, such as Canada and the EU. Bill and his team eventually persuaded countries around the world to pass the Magnitsky Act, from Canada to the EU, Australia, Lithuania and Latvia. Through relentless advocacy, Bill’s efforts have had a significant impact on international human rights policy, and today the Magnitsky Act is seen as one of the most effective tools for combating global corruption. Despite facing threats and legal challenges, Bill continues to fight for justice in the memory of Sergei Magnitsky and others who have suffered under oppressive regimes. |
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