Strategy & economics
2019 may well bring trends that surprise us on the upside
While global growth is slowing, the pessimism that gripped markets in 2018 may lift during the course of this year
Looking ahead to 2019 the base case is that while the global economy will slow, a recession will be avoided. Many factors – including a strong labour market in the US, and fiscal boosts in China and elsewhere – will underpin earnings.
After the extreme negativity of markets in late 2018, we may see a recovery in share prices as several of investors’ worst fears fail to materialise.
At current levels we think markets are pricing in a recession scenario – which we see as extremely pessimistic and unfounded.
Issued in the Channel Islands by Cazenove Capital which is part of the Schroders Group and is a trading name of Schroders (C.I.) Limited, licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission for banking and investment business; and regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. All data contained within this document is sourced from Cazenove Capital unless otherwise stated.