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Weekly Economic Updates

Caspar Rock: Monday markets - the week ahead on 3 February


Caspar Rock

Caspar Rock

Chief Investment Officer

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  • Concerns over the spread of the coronavirus have escalated as the death toll and number of confirmed cases have risen.
  • The Chinese market opened for the first time after the extended break for the Chinese New Year and was down by over 7% this morning
  • The Federal Reserve and Bank of England both chose to keep interest rates on hold. The Bank of England revised down its GDP forecasts to 0.8% for 2020 and 1.4% for 2021, from November’s 1.2% and 1.8% respectively.
  • The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $60 per barrel for the first time since the escalation in tensions in the Middle East.

Week ahead:

  • In the US, ISM manufacturing data is expected to show a recovery in the wake of the phase one trade .
  • Friday's employment report is expected to show a fall in the unemployment rate and a pick-up in hourly earnings.
  • In the stock market earning season continues: figures so far have beaten consensus by a margin – especially in the tech sector 
  • Democratic primaries get underway in Iowa today, although the race may not really hot up until the beginning of March, which will see the entry of Mike Bloomberg to the race.

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