2019 may well bring trends that surprise us on the upside

Looking ahead to 2019 the base case is that while the global economy will slow, a recession will be avoided. Many factors – including a strong labour market in the US, and fiscal boosts in China and elsewhere – will underpin earnings.

After the extreme negativity of markets in late 2018, we may see a recovery in share prices as several of investors’ worst fears fail to materialise.

At current levels we think markets are pricing in a recession scenario – which we see as extremely pessimistic and unfounded.

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