Q1
2019 may well bring trends that surprise us on the upside
Looking ahead to 2019 the base case is that while the global economy will slow, a recession will be avoided. Many factors – including a strong labour market in the US, and fiscal boosts in China and elsewhere – will underpin earnings.
After the extreme negativity of markets in late 2018, we may see a recovery in share prices as several of investors’ worst fears fail to materialise.
At current levels we think markets are pricing in a recession scenario – which we see as extremely pessimistic and unfounded.
